The GRP growth rate in 2015 will be 105.7%, which is 5.1 percentage points lower than the estimate for 2014 (110.8%), while 4.5 percentage points more than the average for the Russian Federation (101. 2%) and 3.4 percentage points more than in the Stavropol Territory (102.3%).
GRP growth rate of the Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol Territory
and GDP of the Russian Federation for 2010-2013,
estimate for 2014 and forecast for 2015-2017
The data presented in the diagram indicate a consistently high growth rate of GRP compared to the Stavropol Territory and the Russian Federation as a whole (GDP).
The average increase in GRP rates in 2015-2017 will be 7.3% in the republic, 2.7% in the Stavropol Territory, and 2.2% in the Russian Federation (GDP).
The share of taxes (to all levels of budgets for 2013) in the volume of GRP is 7.4%, which is 2.3 times lower than the average for the Russian Federation (17%) and 1.6 times less than the average for the North Caucasus Federal District (12.1%), including 2.4 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (at the same time, the difference between the volume of GRP in the Republic of Dagestan and the Stavropol Territory is 1.2 times).
GRP volumes and tax revenues
in the context of subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District for 2013
(to all levels of budgets)
billion rubles
The share of taxes in the structure of the GRP of the Republic of Dagestan is the lowest among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District. According to this indicator, the Republic of Dagestan ranks last among the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, according to many macroeconomic indicators that form the GRP, the Republic of Dagestan occupies a leading position (1-2 places), including:
The volume of agricultural production - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory;
The volume of investments in fixed capital - 1st place;
The volume of completed construction work - 1 place;
Turnover retail- 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory;
The volume of paid services to the population - 2nd place after the Stavropol Territory.
2014 estimate GRP per capita in the Republic of Dagestan will be 171.5 thousand rubles, which is 7.9 thousand rubles or 4.6% less than in the Stavropol Territory (179.4 thousand rubles), then according to the forecast for 2015, the gap will be 3.9 thousand rubles or 2.1% (RD - 190.3 thousand rubles, SC - 194.2 thousand rubles).
The increase in GRP per capita is projected: in 2015 by 11%; in 2016 - by 12.7%; in 2017 - by 13.7%.
In the structure of GRP (according to the forecast for 2015), the largest share (81%) falls on:
Wholesale and retail trade, auto repair Vehicle, household products and items for personal use - 24.6%;
Construction - 20.6%;
Agriculture, hunting and forestry - 13.3%;
Industrial production - 8.3%;
Hotels and restaurants - 7.8%;
Transport and communications - 6.2%.
Structure of the Gross Regional Product
according to the SER RD Forecast for 2015
The predicted high rates of development of certain sectors of the economy in 2015-2017 should lead to a change in the structure of GRP.
4.4. According to the SER RD Forecast for 2015-2017 industrial production index will be: in 2015 - 109.1%, in 2016 - 110.3% and in 2017 - 111.0% compared to the previous year. The growth rate in 2017 in relation to the level of 2013 will increase by 1.5 times against 107.3% on average in the Russian Federation.
In 2015, the volume of shipped products will amount to 70,451.2 million rubles, which is 9,763.7 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014.
The structure of industrial production is:
- "extraction of minerals" - 7.2% (5,076.3 million rubles) against 6.8% according to the estimate for 2014;
- "processing industries" - 67.8% (47,800.6 million rubles) against 66.7% according to the estimate for 2014;
- "production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" - 24.9% (17,574.3 million rubles) against 26.5% according to the estimate for 2014.
The volume of industrial production per capita for 2015 is 23.6 thousand rubles and will increase compared to 2013 (20.4 thousand rubles) by 3.2 thousand rubles or 22.8%, while 4 times lower the level of the Stavropol Territory (92.0 thousand rubles).
Structure of industrial production
(2014-2015)
The bulk of industrial output (more than 60%) is formed by manufacturing industries. According to the forecast for 2015, the volume of manufacturing production will amount to 47,800.6 million rubles, which is 7,306.2 million rubles or 18% more than the estimate for 2014 (40,494.4 million rubles).
Share of products by manufacturing industries total industrial output in 2015 will increase by 1.1 percentage points (from 66.7% to 67.8%), while the share of production and distribution of electricity, gas and water– will decrease by 1.6 percentage points (from 26.5% to 24.9%).
It should be noted that the further development of industry should be facilitated by the implementation of the Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan, including “New Industrialization”, “Growth Points”, Investments and Effective Territorial Development”, Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596 “On the long-term state economic policy”, as well as the state program of the Republic of Dagestan “Industry Development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2014-2018”.
4.5. In 2015, an increase in the rate of production growth is forecasted agricultural products by 0.2 percentage points (106.4%) compared to the assessment level for 2014 (106.2%). The growth rate for 2017 compared to 2013 is projected at 129.1% with 112.3% on average in the Russian Federation.
In the field of agricultural development in the republic, a number of programs and investment projects are implemented annually, to support which significant financial resources are allocated, including credit.
In addition, in 2015 the implementation of Priority projects for the development of the Republic of Dagestan will continue, including those aimed at the development of the agro-industrial complex: “Creation of “points of growth” in the Republic of Dagestan” and “Effective agro-industrial complex”.
In the total volume of agricultural production, the main share is made up of households - 71%, peasant (farm) enterprises - 14.7%, agricultural enterprises - 14.3%.
Structure of agricultural products
Republic of Dagestan and Stavropol Territory
In the total volume of agricultural production, the smallest share is the products of agricultural enterprises - 14.3%, against 60% in the Stavropol Territory (or 4.2 times less).
The volume of agricultural production per capita for 2015 is planned to be 32.0 thousand rubles, or 1.6 times lower than in the Stavropol Territory (53.0 thousand rubles).
According to this indicator, in order to reach the level of the Stavropol Territory by 2017, it is necessary to annually increase the growth rate of agricultural production by at least 1.3 times, and bring the level to the average Russian value by 3 times.
In the forecast period, work will continue on the implementation of the priority development project of the Efficient Agro-Industrial Complex, aimed at the development of poultry farming, viticulture (introduction of a cluster approach), livestock farming, the fishery complex, the placement of intensive industrial gardens, the creation of agro-industrial parks, geothermal agro-parks, maintenance of key investment projects in the field of agro-industrial complex.
4.6. Volume investment in fixed assets at the expense of all sources of financing for 2015, it is projected in the amount of 248,000.0 million rubles, which is 30,000.0 million rubles more than the estimate for 2014, while the growth rate (107.6%) by 5.1 percent points below the 2014 estimate (112.7%).
The growth rate of investments in 2017 in relation to the level of 2013 will be 144.9% against 104.1% on average in the Russian Federation.
The volume of investments per capita for 2015 is projected at the level of 82.9 thousand rubles, which is 13.1% or 9.6 thousand rubles more than the estimate for 2014 (73.3 thousand rubles).
In the structure of investment distribution, the largest share is occupied by enterprises of the following types economic activity: "transport and communications" - 19.5%, "construction" - 17.0%, "production and distribution of electricity, gas and water" - 12.8%, "manufacturing" - 10.3%, "operations with real estate, rent and services" - 8.6%, "agriculture" - 8.5%, "health" - 8.1%, "education" - 7.1%.
Of the total volume of investments, the share of own funds of organizations is 13.6%, attracted funds - 86.4%, of which budgetary funds - 57.6%.
In terms of investment volume for 2015, the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, in particular the Stavropol Territory, in terms of total investment and investment per capita - 1.5 times (investment volume: RD - 248.0 billion rubles, SC - 145.0 billion rubles, per capita: RD - 82.9 thousand rubles, SC - 51.8 thousand rubles).
High growth rates of investment in fixed capital will be ensured by additional capital investments in energy, production of building materials, agro-industrial complex, extractive sector, manufacturing, transport, tourism and recreation complex, housing construction, education and health care.
In order to attract investments in the republic, the Priority Development Project of the Republican Development Program "Investments in Dagestan" is being implemented, which provides for the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the representation of the republic in federal programs, in the investment programs of state companies and state corporations, which will ensure the inflow of additional investment funds into economy.
4.7. Taking into account the growth of investments in fixed assets in the forecast period, the growth volume of work performed by type of activity "Construction" will be: in 2015 - by 15,000.0 million rubles or 13.8%, in 2016 - by 7,000.0 million rubles or 5.7%, in 2017 - by 11,000.0 million rubles or 8.4%.
An increase in the commissioning of residential buildings is predicted from all sources of financing: in 2015 - by 2.5% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,650 thousand sq. m), in 2016 - by 5.5% or 90 thousand sq. m. m (1,740 thousand sq. m), in 2017 - a decrease of 2.3% or 40 thousand sq. m. m (1,700 thousand sq. m).
The share of housing built by individual developers will increase to 90% against 89% in 2014 (estimate).
According to the Ministry of Construction, Architecture, Housing and Communal Services of the Republic of Dagestan, in January-September of this year, the rate of commissioning of new housing increased by almost 8% compared to the same period last year. More than 80% of the total number of housing under construction is being built by individual developers. For 9 months of 2014, about 650.0 thousand square meters were commissioned in the region. m of individual housing and almost 120.0 thousand square meters. m of housing in multi-storey residential buildings.
The total area of residential premises per 1 inhabitant of the republic in 2017 will be 19.0 sq. m (for 2013 - 17.1 sq. m), while the average for the Russian Federation (according to the report for 2012) is 23.4 sq. m. m.
4.8. turnover retail for 2015 according to the Forecast of the SER RD for 2015-2017 will amount to 579,598.1 million rubles, which is 67,938.2 million rubles or 13.3% more than the estimate for 2014 (511,659.9 million rubles ).
The growth rate of retail trade turnover for 2013-2016 is planned to be higher than the average for the Russian Federation and the Stavropol Territory. Thus, the growth rate of retail trade turnover in the forecast period will be: in 2015 - 8.4%; in 2016 - 10.2%; in 2017 - 12.1%. Program
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ended another year. It must be admitted that it was not easy not only for the country as a whole, but also for our republic. In 2017, the imposition of sanctions against Russia continued, however, our country also responded with “mirror” measures. But unlike previous years, we have already adapted to the sanctions and the economic crisis, which, admittedly, has subsided. Despite this, in 2017, as in previous years, the “austerity regime” was relevant. In these difficult conditions, we managed to show growth in many positions. So, let's sum up the preliminary results of the past year (the exact figures will be known a little later).
Big Picture
In general, the socio-economic situation in Dagestan by the end of the year showed a positive trend in the pace of the main economic indicators. The growth rate of industrial production amounted to 20.6%, agricultural and construction products - 4.7% each, retail trade turnover - 3%, the volume of paid services to the population - 2.7%, real disposable money income - 3.3%.
As a result, the index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity increased by 6.4% with an increase of 6.1% in January-November 2016.
As part of the implementation of the subprogram "Socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for 2016-2025" of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of the North Caucasian Federal District" for the period up to 2025 "in the current year, investment projects for the construction of greenhouse complexes of LLC" AgroMir" and LLC "Yugagroholding", as well as a plant for the production of gypsum and gypsum-containing building materials in the industrial area with. Kafir-Kumukh. It is assumed that after the projects reach their planned capacities, more than 400 jobs will be created, and annual tax payments to the budgets of all levels in the amount of 180 million rubles will be secured.
Priority projects for the development of Dagestan were implemented, including in order to increase the tax potential of the consolidated budget of the region. Tax and non-tax revenues for 11 months amounted to 29 billion rubles, the established tasks for the collection of tax and non-tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the republic were fulfilled by 101.3%.
In addition, information about 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand objects was transferred to AIS Tax-3 capital construction, updated information and formalized ownership of 53.6 thousand land plots and 33.9 thousand capital construction projects. 4249 entities engaged in activities without registration were identified, 2923 entities were put on tax records. As of December 20, 53.8 thousand people engaged in activities without appropriate registration were identified, of which 44.9 thousand people were imprisoned employment contracts or put on record (100.3% of planned values).
Industry
The situation in the industry was characterized by an increase in production volumes as a whole by 20.6%, with an increase in the pace of mining by 0.5%, manufacturing by 25.1% and an observed decline in the volume of water supply, sanitation, organizing the collection and disposal of waste, activities for elimination of pollution by 0.7% and provision of electricity, gas and steam, air conditioning by 11.6%.
In terms of the type of activity “processing industries”, the high level of growth in the index of industrial production (125.1%) over 11 months compared to the corresponding period in 2016 is the result of outstripping growth in industrial production in such structure-forming types of economic activity as the production of coke and petroleum products - by 6 .3 times (CJSC "Caspiy 1"); production of finished metal products, except for machinery and equipment - by 1.8 times (OJSC "Dagdiesel"); production of computers, electronic and optical products - 1.5 times (JSC Azimut); production of other vehicles and equipment - 1.4 times (JSC Concern KEMZ); production of beverages - 1.3 times. At the same time, there is a decrease in production in production electrical equipment- by 33.8% (OJSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"), production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups - by 32.5% (FL NPC Conversion "Plant of Separators") and production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 30 .9% (OJSC Branch of PJSC RusHydro - Dagestan branch).
In 2017, production facilities were put into operation at seven industrial enterprises of Dagestan: floor tiles and ceramic granite at Marabi LLC; modern lift-assembly production of various carrying capacity at JSC "Kizlyar Electric Apparatus Plant"; section of vacuum-film forming at JSC “Plant im. Gadzhiev"; modernization of the machine-assembly shop at Dagdizel Plant JSC; the second machining workshop, thermal, welding and assembly sections at the Aircraft Mechanical Plant of JSC Concern KEMZ in Kaspiysk; resumption of the production of fiberglass and fiberglass fabrics of OJSC Makhachkala Fiberglass Plant; galvanic production and launch of a molar section at OJSC Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk Electromechanical Plant.
According to preliminary data, the volume of production under the defense order for 2017 increased by 1.5 times and is estimated at 9 billion rubles. The volume of production of import-substituting industrial products, mainly for defense purposes, in 2017 was estimated at 3.7 billion rubles and increased by 1.4 times compared to 2016.
In general, the growth rate of industrial production in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (101.6%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7%). Among regions North Caucasus District Dagestan is in fifth place in terms of this indicator per capita (16 thousand rubles).
Agriculture
The volume of agricultural production by all categories of commodity producers amounted to 110.4 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% (in January-November 2016 - by 3.8%). Growth in agricultural production is provided, first of all, by increasing the gross harvest of crop production.
Thus, in Dagestan, the harvesting of the main agricultural crops has been completed. The gross harvest of vegetables amounted to about 1.5 million tons (105.2% compared to the same period in 2016), potatoes - 395 thousand tons (99.7%), fruits - 208.5 thousand tons (159.8%), rice - 85 thousand tons (111.2%), grapes - 168.8 thousand tons (113.6%). The planting of orchards amounted to almost 1.5 thousand hectares, including intensive type gardens - 673.5 hectares, while the planned indicator for the current year is 1100 hectares and 200 hectares, respectively. New orchards were planted on an area of 1233.4 ha, which was 82.2% of the program target for 2017 (1500 ha).
Growth in production for 11 months is also observed in terms of the main indicators of livestock products. The production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) for the specified period in farms of all categories amounted to 208.4 thousand tons (105.6% compared to the corresponding period in 2016), milk - 767.7 thousand tons (102.6% ), eggs - 215.2 million pieces (103%).
As part of the implementation of the Action Plan for import substitution in Dagestan, work is underway to commission, reconstruct and modernize a number of industries. So, in s. Novokuli, Novolaksky district (Novostroy), the first stage of the greenhouse complex with a total area of 1.3 hectares was put into operation. In addition, Yugagroholding LLC launched the first stage of a greenhouse complex on an area of 5.5 hectares, which will further increase the production of vegetables in greenhouses during the off-season period by 2.5 thousand tons. To provide the greenhouse complex with backup water supply, LLC Yugagroholding built a backup reservoir with a capacity of 14 thousand cubic meters. The launch of these facilities will increase the production of protected ground vegetables by the end of 2017 to 18 thousand tons, against 14 thousand tons in 2016.
In order to develop the infrastructure and logistics of the food market in Dagestan, Yugagroholding LLC completed the construction of a fruit storage with a total capacity of 4,000 tons and a vegetable storage with a capacity of 6,000 tons in July 2017.
Based on the production of feed pellets from alfalfa green mass, Kizlyar Uritsky Meat Processing Plant LLC has created a raw material base for increasing the production of sausages, producing new types of raw smoked sausages, canned meat, and meat and bone meal. The enterprise is working to expand export opportunities, delivering products (lamb meat) to Iran.
In addition, work is underway in the republic on the technical modernization of agricultural production. Thus, agricultural producers of the republic purchased 51 units of equipment, including 13 tractors and one grain harvester for a total of 50 million rubles.
The growth rate of agriculture in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% against 102.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 101.2%). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in fourth place in terms of this indicator per capita (33 thousand rubles), the best indicator is in the Stavropol Territory (65.5 thousand rubles).
Investments in fixed assets
The volume of investments in fixed capital in Dagestan from all sources of financing for three quarters amounted to 110.5 billion rubles, or 104.6% compared to the same period in 2016. The volume of work performed by the type of activity "construction" for 11 months amounted to 99.7 billion rubles and increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2016.
Due to all sources of financing in Dagestan in January-November, according to preliminary data, more than 1 million 374 thousand square meters were put into operation. meters of the total area of housing, which is higher than the same period last year by 0.1%. Commissioning of housing by individual developers for the past period of the current year amounted to 928.8 thousand square meters. meters of the total area of housing, or 67.6% of the total housing commissioned.
The growth rate in terms of the volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction" in January-October in the republic was above the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (104.7% against 97.9%) and for the North Caucasus Federal District (104.7% against 102.6 %). Among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, the republic is in first place in terms of this indicator per capita (24 thousand rubles).
As of December 1, the actual financing of the Republican Investment Program amounted to over 3 billion 165 million rubles, including more than 2 billion 92 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 72 million rubles from the republican budget. The volume of work performed on the objects of the Program for the specified period amounted to about 2 billion 859 million rubles, or 90.3% of the volume of actually financed funds.
In 2017, within the framework of the Program (including funding from previous years), 9 facilities were put into operation general education for 4586 student places (in Buynaksky, Kaytagsky, Tarumovsky, Tlyaratinsky, Khasavyurtovsky, Khiva districts and in the cities of Makhachkala, Kaspiysk, Khasavyurt), 3 kindergartens for 290 places (in Buynaksky and resettlement Novolaksky districts), FEC for 2497.5 sq. m (in Kizlyar), 1 healthcare facility for 150 beds (Republican Perinatal Center in Makhachkala) preparation of the reservoir bed of the Gotsatlinskaya HPP.
In addition, the construction of 6 educational facilities for 2748 student places has been completed: in the city of Makhachkala (2 schools), in Khasavyurt (2 schools), Kumtorkalinsky, Magaramkent districts; 2 hospitals with a total capacity of 245 beds and 100 visits per shift (in Botlikh and Karabudakhkent districts), pumping station(for water supply of the city of Khasavyurt and villages of the Khasavyurt district), sewage treatment facilities for 17 thousand cubic meters per day (in the city of Izberbash), engineering infrastructure facilities of the Uytash investment site. These facilities will be put into operation at the beginning of 2018, taking into account the registration of property rights and licensing of current activities.
In 2018, over 3 billion 263 million rubles are provided for the implementation of the Program, including 1 billion 611 million rubles from the federal budget and 1 billion 652 million rubles from the republican budget.
Social sphere
The social sphere in the republic is characterized by an increase in real disposable money income of the population by 3.3%. Average monthly wage employees for January-October amounted to a little more than 21 thousand 273 rubles, which is 5.1% more than the same period in 2016. Real wages for the past period of the current year is 101.6%, which is much better than the same period last year (96.6%). At the same time, the average monthly wage is still below the average for the Russian Federation as a whole (by 1.8 times) and the North Caucasian Federal District (by 1.1 times).
The situation on the labor market of the republic remained stable. At the end of November, 24.8 thousand people were registered as unemployed in state institutions of the employment service (92.2% compared to January-November 2016).
Budget: execution and benchmarks
The consolidated budget of Dagestan in 2017, as of December 29, was executed by 100% in terms of tax and non-tax revenues, almost 32 billion rubles were secured.
As explained in the Ministry of Economic Development of the region, the achievement of positive results in the collection of tax and non-tax revenues was facilitated by the activities of the priority project for the development of the Republic of Dagestan "Whitening" the economy. Work was carried out to expand the tax base for property taxes, to increase revenues from the main types of taxes.
As a result of the work carried out in 2017, data on 63.6 thousand land plots and 67.1 thousand capital construction projects were updated and transferred to the database of tax authorities. In addition, 14 thousand 704 objects of entrepreneurship were examined, 4362 persons engaged in entrepreneurial activities without registration were identified, of which 2923 entities were tax registered.
As a result of the work carried out, a significant increase in revenues was achieved compared to the previous year from income tax (by 10.2% or 383 million rubles), special tax regimes (by 6.6% or 80.5 million rubles), property taxes (by 8.4%, or 388.4 million rubles).
In 2017, due to the allocation to the republic of additional financial assistance From the reserve fund of the President of the Russian Federation in the amount of 3.2 billion rubles, it was possible to fully fulfill the social obligations provided for in the 2017 budget, including the payment of wages to public sector employees, benefits and others.
The 2018 budget is also socially oriented. At the same time, funds are provided to support the real sector of the economy. First of all, the budget takes into account the unconditional implementation of the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, including in terms of ensuring the indicative wages of public sector employees subject to the decrees. Sufficiently taken into account are the costs of drug provision, utility and social payments, meals in preschool educational institutions and schools, healthcare institutions, etc. In addition, the budget provides for meeting the need for wages, accruals for wages, taking into account: an increase in the minimum wage to 9,489 rubles; increase by 4 percent of the wage fund for other categories of workers not subject to the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of state civil and municipal employees; indexation of the scholarship fund for students educational institutions vocational education from September 1, 2018 by 4 percent. Utility bills are provided with an indexation of 4 percent.
As for the real sector of the economy, the budget provides funds in the amount of 100 million rubles for the leasing of agricultural machinery, 50 million rubles for the development of the canning industry, 100 million rubles for payment to grape producers for its delivery to alcohol-producing enterprises for processing at the rate of 1 ruble per 1 kg. In addition, for the first time, funds were allocated for the creation of the Industrial Development Fund in the amount of 100 million rubles.
Development of municipalities
In 2017, an assessment was made of the implementation of the Agreements concluded between the Government of the Republic of Dagestan and municipal districts and urban districts on the achievement of indicators (indicators) of accelerated socio-economic development for 2016, which made it possible to determine the contribution of each municipality to the socio-economic development of the republic. The ranking of municipal districts and urban districts was carried out based on the results of achieving the planned values of indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development in 2016.
In order to continue this work, as well as to ensure the achievement of the values \u200b\u200bof indicators (indicators) of the socio-economic development of the republic, established by the Decree of the Head of the region "On the accelerated socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan", Agreements were signed between the Government of Dagestan and the heads of municipal districts and urban districts on achieving indicators (indicators) of socio-economic development of municipal districts and urban districts for 2017-2019. During 2017, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements was carried out, with the preparation of relevant proposals.
In 2018, quarterly monitoring of the implementation of these agreements will continue, as well as an assessment of the implementation of the Agreements based on the results of 2017.
In 2017, a competitive selection of projects of local initiatives of municipalities was held in Dagestan, as a result of which subsidies were allocated - 29.3 million rubles - for the implementation of 15 projects. The projects include measures for water supply, construction of roads, repair of social facilities, and landscaping.
In 2018, work will continue to expand the number of municipalities participating in the competitive selection of projects of local initiatives.
In 2017, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the activities of local self-government bodies was also carried out, urban districts and municipal districts of the Republic of Dagestan were identified that have achieved the best performance indicators. A Consolidated report on the results of monitoring the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts based on the results of 2016 has been prepared. Based on the results of the work carried out, the Decree of the Head of Dagestan awarded prizes and allocated grants from the republican budget to 15 municipalities: 3 urban districts and 12 municipal districts.
Placement in the state automated information system "Management" of the values of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts for the reporting period, as well as planned values for a three-year period, has been ensured.
In 2018, work on assessing the effectiveness of the activities of local governments of urban districts and municipal districts of Dagestan continued.
Conclusion
To ensure the growth of the main economic and social indicators last year in Dagestan, work was carried out to implement a number of measures aimed at economic growth and improving the welfare of the population. Anti-crisis measures, action plans to promote import substitution in the industry and agro-industrial complex of the republic were implemented. Achievement of target values of indicators of social and economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation established by the "May" decrees of the President of the Russian Federation was ensured.
In addition, in order to maximize the potential of Dagestan, action plans were implemented to implement a number of decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation.
In addition, as part of the decisions taken in 2016 at the federal level, work was carried out in the republic on the transition to project management, taking into account the new requirements for the implementation of strategic tasks, priority projects and programs. All executive authorities are focused on participating in the implementation of federal projects within the framework of 11 areas of strategic development of the Russian Federation. The Coordinating Group of the Council under the Head of Dagestan for Sustainable Development and Priority Projects approved the Passports of Priority Development Projects of the Republic of Dagestan. Of the 11 main directions of the strategic development of the Russian Federation, Dagestan takes part in six: safe and high-quality roads; small business and support for individual entrepreneurial initiatives; education; housing and communal services and urban environment; single-industry towns and the reform of control and supervisory activities.
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ON SOME INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN for January-December 2016
Gross regional product
Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity for January-December 2016 increased compared to the corresponding period of 2015 and amounted to 107.8% (January-December 2015 - 105.9%).
industrial production
Industrial production index for January-December 2016 to the corresponding period of 2015. amounted to 136.3%, against 105.2% in January-December 2015. On the growth of industrial production compared to January-December 2015. was affected by the increase in: the production of machinery and equipment - by 2.5 times (Dagdiesel OJSC), the production of vehicles and equipment - by 1.8 times (KEMZ Concern OJSC), the production, transmission and distribution of electricity - by 44.9 % (Dagestan Branch of JSC RusHydro) and food production, including drinks and tobacco - by 5.7% (JSC Kizlyaragrokompleks, JSC Derbent Cognac Plant, JSC Rychal-Su). At the same time, there is a decrease in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals - by 7.6% (OJSC NK Rosneft-Dagneft), production, transmission and distribution of steam and hot water– by 12% (JSC Makhachkala Teploenergo, LLC Caspiy Teploservis, LLC Dagestanenergo).
Agriculture
The volume of agricultural production of all agricultural producers (agricultural organizations, peasant (farm) households, population) in January-December 2016 is estimated at 112454.6 million rubles in current prices, and amounted to 104.7% (including crop production - 104, 7%, livestock - 104.6%,) compared to the corresponding period of 2015, against 105.2% in January-December 2015.
Construction
The volume of work performed by the type of activity "construction" in January-December 2016 amounted to 133440.1 million rubles and increased by 4.0% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. In January-December 2016, large and medium-sized construction organizations completed works worth 8841.6 million rubles, which amounted to 121.0% of the level of January-December 2015. In January-December 2016, housing was commissioned with a total area of 1844.8 thousand square meters. meters, which is 1.9% more than in the corresponding period of the previous year, including individual residential buildings - 1579.3 thousand square meters. meters, which is 12.5% more.
Trade and services
The retail trade turnover in January-December 2016 amounted to 671,214.4 million rubles, which is 1.9% more than the same period of the previous year in comparable prices. The increase in the growth rate of retail trade turnover in January-December 2016 was due to an increase in the physical volume of sales in the markets by 3.9% against the level of the corresponding period of the previous year. In the structure of retail trade turnover, the share food products January-December 2016 amounted to 52.4%, non-food products - 47.6%. The volume of paid services provided to the population of the republic through all sales channels in January-December 2016 amounted to 116440.3 million rubles, which is 1.6% more in comparable prices than the corresponding period of 2015.
Finance
Finance. In January-November 2016, the balanced financial result (profit minus loss) of organizations in current prices amounted to 3,750.2 million rubles of loss. As of December 1, 2016, the accounts payable of the surveyed organizations of the republic amounted to 80517.6 million rubles, including overdue - 28027.1 million rubles or 34.8% of the total amount (as of December 1, 2015 - 32.4%). Accounts payable decreased by 3% compared to the previous month, and increased by 13.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, and its overdue debt, respectively, decreased by 3.5% and increased by 22.3%. Accounts receivable as of December 1, 2016 amounted to 30085.9 million rubles, of which overdue - 6631.4 million rubles or 22% (as of December 1, 2015 - 18.3%). Accounts receivable decreased by 2.1% compared to the previous month, and decreased by 1.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, while its overdue debt decreased by 7.9% and 13.4%, respectively.
social issues
The average per capita cash income for January-December 2016, according to estimates, amounted to 28,634.4 rubles. Real disposable money income (income minus obligatory payments, adjusted for the consumer price index), according to preliminary data, amounted to 102.6%. Average monthly nominal wage for January-November 2016 amounted to 19446.9 rubles and increased by 3.4% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Real wages, for the same period compared to the corresponding period in 2015. decreased by 2.8%.
On December 1, the Moscow House of Nationalities hosted IV Forum “Dagestan. View from Moscow”, organized by the Political Club “Dignity”. A teleconference between the Moscow and Makhachkala branches of the club brought together Dagestanis who are not indifferent to fate native land. The forum was moderated by public figure Khadzhimurad Gadzhiev, who noted that the club brings together experts, public and political figures and everyone who wants to change life in Dagestan for the better.
Expert economist Khadzhi-Murad Abashilov presented the report "Assessment of the economic situation in the Republic of Dagestan", which "MK in Dagestan" publishes today. We will tell you more about the forum in the next issue.
Balancing with numbers or inflated indicators
My last year's report, devoted to assessing the socio-economic situation of the republic, was devoted to the indicators that were achieved or published in official sources. Doubts about their reliability, an indication of the complete dependence of figures on political will, and not on economic processes, then caused a violent negative reaction.
Bubbles are being inflated in many sectors of the economy, including agriculture. The number of postscripts on the number of livestock in animal husbandry and the overestimation of the amount of expenses to be reimbursed for crop production cannot even be calculated by the auditors. Management of industries is not about reaching new heights, but about balancing numbers and mastering budgets.
This mechanism cannot be repaired. It can only be broken by breaking all the vicious bonds within it. We can appreciate this on the example of the capital. The most complex system management of the city under the leadership of Said Amirov, tied to personal connections and a corruption mechanism, after his arrest, gave critical failures in all areas - life support systems, the financial and budgetary sphere, utilities, and the transport sector fell into collapse more than once.
We can only proceed from whether certain parts of the creaky state-administrative system of the republic will be changed or will they still build a new mechanism? And we again come to the conclusion that the economy is controlled by politics. 2017 was marked by a major political step that dramatically changed the disposition. We will not analyze public reports with unsubstantiated figures and look for further inconsistencies in them. Let's try to assess - what is the economy of Dagestan and in what direction should it move?
The state of the economy of Dagestan
Official statistics show that for January 1-October 2017, growth is observed in almost all areas. Let us give data on the turnover of organizations for 10 months of 2017, and on the balanced financial result - for the 3rd quarter of 2017.
Agriculture- 15.5% of the gross regional product. In terms of turnover of organizations, an increase of 118% is shown, in terms of financial results, excluding small businesses, an increase of 173%.
Mining- 0.4% of GRP with negative dynamics in its structure. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 108.5%, in terms of financial results, the dynamics is zero.
Manufacturing- 3.9% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 112.7%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 104.4%.
Energy- 2.0% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 104.8%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 102.1%.
Construction- 15.8% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 112.6%, in terms of financial results - an increase of 116.5%.
Transport and communications- 7.5% of GRP. On the turnover of organizations - no data, on the financial result - a decrease to 92.1%.
Sector of public administration- 6.4% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 116.6%, it makes no sense to evaluate this sector by financial results.
Trade- 28.5% of GRP. In terms of turnover of organizations - an increase of 103.5%, in terms of financial results - a decrease to 92.8%.
These figures mean that Dagestan is an agricultural, trade-oriented republic with little industrial production, mainly in the construction and energy sectors. According to the reporting indicators, the dynamics in 2017 averages 108% compared to the previous year, which indicates incredible success!
However, in the section “Financial performance of organizations” in the report of the Rosstat technical specifications for RD, it is indicated: “In January-August 2017, the balanced financial result (profit minus loss) of organizations (excluding small businesses, banks, insurance and budgetary organizations) in current prices amounted to 3,048.9 million rubles loss. For the same period of the previous year, the net result was 2,855.5 million rubles of loss.”
Organizations are massively at a loss. Small business entities (the key sector in the republic) are not even evaluated - they only aggravate the statistics. That is, statistics once again play with numbers, but the economy is not growing.
Reasons for the weakness of the economy of Dagestan
1. Investment climate developed over the past 4 years. Investment demand is spurred on by state investments and state guarantees to organizations close to the leadership of the republic, and is tuned not to long-term investment, but to receiving subsidies and benefits from the state, which is perfectly shown, for example, by agriculture. The entire increase in agricultural volumes is due to almost a multiple increase in subsidies for specific areas of activity - viticulture, animal husbandry, for which several areas of state subsidies operate simultaneously. Everything that concerns private investment without the participation of the state is dead.
2. Scarcity of own finances republics. The annual exaggeration of the topic of interbudgetary transfers leads to another tug-of-war between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the struggle for subsidies. 75% of the republican budget was drawn up at the expense of subventions, subsidies and, most importantly, subsidies. Approximately 23 billion of own revenues out of almost 100 billion of expenditures with really positive dynamics of increasing tax revenues and fees is a true indicator of a balanced budget.
In Dagestan, the market is represented by Sberbank and Rosselkhozbank, which operate according to well-established schemes. What the rest of the Dagestan banks are doing, we will find out when the Central Bank once announces that "this credit institution did not meet the capital requirements and carried out dubious unreasonable financial transactions."
3. Huge debt, artificially hung on key elements fuel and energy complex of the republic. The debts of gas and energy companies will wander from year to year in a frightening arithmetic progression with insane figures of 35 billion rubles. as of 2017 already. An annual increase in debt of more than 10% requires political intervention by the leadership of the republic and a tough position on the settlement of debt obligations.
4. Lack of developed industrial production . Flagships of the republican economy, such as Azimuth, Aviaagregat, Elektrosignal, KEMZ and Dagdiesel, regularly subsidized by defense orders, are absolutely not visible on the Russian market. The absence of its own production base creates dependence on external manufacturers for the smallest nomenclatures of parts for agriculture, construction and trade.
5. High shadow component of the economy . This area can be assessed, although rather approximate. For example, according to the results of a whole range of inspections initiated by the city leadership together with the tax authorities, more than 3,000 entrepreneurs were identified who carried out their activities without registration. But few people work "in the black" - the whole business is mainly focused on "gray schemes". The tightening of administrative control and the constant increase in tax rates, fees, and contributions encourage people to go "into the shadows", which is especially typical for small businesses.
6. Administrative and law enforcement press . This is the most difficult to evaluate indicator, which directly correlates with the first item and is inversely proportional to it. He is bound. The number and scope of inspections of various control bodies, the initiation of criminal cases on the slightest pretext with the qualification "fraud". Interesting fact- in 2017, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Dagestan simultaneously checked 5 (five!) Controlling organizations. An endless verification process destabilizes the work of any institution and levels the meaning of its activities.
Politics is a concentrated economy
According to the definition of Vladimir Lenin, the economy is determined by politics, political will. The new leadership of Dagestan has publicly announced a paradigm shift - not to "work a little for yourself", but to strictly follow the law, especially in terms of anti-corruption legislation. Rules and their observance are important for the economy. It is necessary to choose key areas and focus on them without being scattered.
1. Resolving the issue of gas and energy debts. The republic cannot enter the electricity production market, with investment sites for the extraction and sale of minerals with a bankrupt reputation. Negotiating with key creditors, fixing the obligations of the republic with real discounting, setting a strict repayment schedule for up to 5 years with a limit on payments not exceeding 1% of GRP per year.
2. Creation of a regional bank. This is precisely the political issue of solving the financial and economic problem, which lies in the sphere of supervision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and under the strict supervision of the Ministry of Finance of Russia. Without operating extra-budgetary sources of financing, any steps taken by the regional authorities have little chance of being implemented. A regional bank cannot be created directly by the state authorities of the republic, therefore this form must be developed jointly with the leadership of the above-mentioned federal bodies. Or, under the strict guidance of the TC of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for RD, the remaining regional banks were consolidated in order to form such a commercial bank of regional significance.
3. Definition of agriculture as a locomotive sector of the economy. Solving problems associated with the collection, storage, sorting and transportation of crops, creating conditions for the year-round cycle of most sub-sectors. Abandon the form of state guarantees, as this creates unhealthy competition between large and small producers. It is in this area that the economic multiplier will work due to the expansion of the construction of a large number of related elements - warehouses, sorting centers, vegetable stores, mini canneries and so on.
5. Rejection of direct financing and provision of state guarantees in investment project, unrelated to agriculture . Outrageous estimates and unrealistic prospects for each individual project in all cases turned out to be zilch. Within the framework of strict budgetary parameters, it is necessary to maintain a minimum of politeness in relation to industrial production, which in reality is far from the best multiplier, but it reacts very quickly to changes in the economy, which is immediately reflected in its indicators.
6. Sequestration of budget expenditures in terms of public administration expenditures . To carry out optimization of municipalities and districts of the republic in order to reduce the inefficient administrative apparatus. The expenditures of the budgets of settlements on the salaries of managers sometimes amount to more than half of the entire budget, which breaks the whole point of the existence of these budgets. The same applies to the budgets of the districts, which must be combined for specific quantitative parameters, taking into account, of course, the national-historical aspect. This will provide significant savings in budgetary funds, released for social or investment spending.
7. The development of the capital of the republic into an agglomeration, the prototype of a modern metropolis. The unification of Makhachkala and Kaspiysk with the addition of territory for industrial and residential construction will create an investment potential for the breakthrough development of the capital as a powerful educational, industrial and financial center.
Makhachkala needs to be transformed - in a new transport paradigm, territorial planning and zoning, expanding the budgetary potential in order to form a key base for the development of the republic, its central financial, personnel and organizational component. The economies of scale in this case will play a huge role, although it is too early to talk about specific figures. The question is in the strategic solution of the problem, which cannot be removed by simple cost optimization or the struggle to increase income.
Here we again face the question of the quality of the state apparatus and the level of officials. Any economic decision in the republic will have an effect only if there is political will and an efficient, tuned team. We are waiting and getting ready!
