Discussing global climate change, also called global warming, can be very complex. Fortunately, this problem can be explained quite simply. Here are the basic things you need to know about climate change:
Warmer land and oceans
The climate has warmed and cooled many times over the Earth's geological history. However, the global increase in average temperature that we have observed in recent decades has become relatively fast and quite significant. This leads to warmer air temperatures in the atmosphere, on land and in water in almost all of our planet.
Less ice and less snow
Rising temperatures have increased the melting of most of the world's glaciers. In addition, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing volume, and the sea ice covers an ever smaller part of the Arctic, and is becoming much thinner. Winter snow cover is becoming weaker in most areas. Sea levels are rising, both because the ice is melting and because warmer water is taking up more space.
Less predictable weather
While the term "climate" refers to long-term statistics on many aspects of temperature and precipitation, weather is a more immediate phenomenon and is what we experience in our daily lives. Global climate change is transforming our experience of weather events in different ways depending on where we live. Common changes include more frequent and heavy rains, regular winter thaws, or persistent droughts.
the greenhouse effect
Human activity releases many greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases hold back solar energy that has been reflected by the earth's surface. This heat is then redirected towards the ground, increasing the temperature. Much of the observed warming is due to these gases.
How is greenhouse gas formed?
The most important greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide and methane. They are released into the atmosphere during the extraction, processing and combustion of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil and natural gas). These gases are also released when we cut down trees, because trees absorb harmful CO2, and also during certain types of agricultural economic activity.
Consequences of global warming
The effects of global warming include more frequent coastal flooding, heat waves, extreme rainfall, food insecurity and urban vulnerability. The effects of global warming are (and will be) felt differently in different parts of the world. Global climate change tends to affect more those who do not have the economic means to develop ways to adapt to change.
Of course, climate change affects not only people, but also the rest of the world. Global warming has few positive effects. Agricultural returns, often cited as positive, cannot offset pest problems (including invasive species), droughts, and severe weather events.
We can reduce the problem of global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We can also capture carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere and store it safely on earth. In addition, investments should be made in infrastructure, transport and Agriculture to adapt to the inevitable changes caused by global warming.
The geological age of our planet is approximately 4.5 billion years. During this period, the Earth has changed dramatically. The composition of the atmosphere, the mass of the planet itself, the climate - at the beginning of existence, everything was completely different. The red-hot ball very slowly became the way we are used to seeing it now. Tectonic plates collided, forming ever new mountain systems. On a gradually cooling planet, seas and oceans formed. Continents appeared and disappeared, their shape and size changed. The earth began to rotate more slowly. The first plants appeared, and then life itself. Accordingly, over the past billions of years, cardinal changes have taken place on the planet in moisture circulation, heat circulation and atmospheric composition. Climate change has occurred throughout the existence of the Earth.
Holocene Epoch
The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. In other words, this is an epoch that began about 12 thousand years ago and continues to the present. The Holocene began with the end of the ice age, and since then climate change on the planet has been moving towards global warming. This era is often referred to as the interglacial, since there have already been several ice ages in the entire climatic history of the planet.
The last global cooling occurred approximately 110,000 years ago. About 14 thousand years ago, warming began, gradually covering the entire planet. The glaciers that at that time covered most of the Northern Hemisphere began to melt and collapse. Naturally, all this did not happen overnight. For a very long period, the planet was shaken by strong temperature fluctuations, the glaciers either advanced or retreated again. All this also affected the level of the World Ocean.
Holocene periods
During numerous studies, scientists decided to divide the Holocene into several time periods depending on the climate. Approximately 12-10 thousand years ago, the ice sheets disappeared, the post-glacial period began. In Europe, the tundra began to disappear, it was replaced by birch, pine and taiga forests. This time is called the Arctic and Subarctic period.
Then came the boreal era. The taiga pushed the tundra further north. Broad-leaved forests appeared in Southern Europe. During this time, the climate was predominantly cool and dry.
Approximately 6 thousand years ago, the Atlantean era began, during which the air became warm and humid, much warmer than today. This period of time is considered the climatic optimum of the entire Holocene. Half was covered with birch forests. Europe abounded great variety thermophilic plants. At the same time, the extent of temperate forests was much further north. Dark coniferous forests grew on the shores of the Barents Sea, and the taiga reached Cape Chelyuskin. On the site of the modern Sahara there was a savannah, and the water level in Lake Chad was 40 meters higher than the modern one.
Then climate change happened again. A cold snap set in, lasting about 2,000 years. This period of time is called subboreal. Mountain ranges in Alaska, Iceland, in the Alps acquired glaciers. Landscape zones have shifted closer to the equator.
Approximately 2.5 thousand years ago, the last period of the modern Holocene, the Subatlantic, began. The climate of this era became cooler and wetter. Peat bogs began to appear, the tundra gradually began to press on the forests, and the forests on the steppes. Around the 14th century, the cooling of the climate began, leading to the Little Ice Age, which lasted until the middle of the 19th century. At this time, invasions of glaciers were recorded in the mountain ranges of Northern Europe, Iceland, Alaska and the Andes. At different points the globe The climate has not changed synchronously. The causes of the onset of the Little Ice Age are still unknown. According to scientists, the climate could change due to increases in volcanic eruptions and a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Start of meteorological observations
The first appeared at the end of the 18th century. Since that time, constant monitoring of climatic fluctuations has been carried out. It can be reliably stated that the warming that began after the Little Ice Age continues to the present.
Since the end of the 19th century, an increase in the average global temperature of the planet has been recorded. In the middle of the 20th century there was a slight cooling, which did not affect the climate in general. Since the mid-1970s, it has become warmer again. According to scientists, over the past century, the global temperature of the Earth has increased by 0.74 degrees. The largest increase in this indicator has been recorded in the last 30 years.
Climate change invariably affects the state of the oceans. An increase in global temperature leads to the expansion of water, and hence to an increase in its level. There are also changes in the distribution of precipitation, which, in turn, can affect the flow of rivers and glaciers.
According to observations, the level of the World Ocean over the past 100 years has risen by 5 cm. Scientists attribute climate warming to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and a significant increase in the greenhouse effect.
climate-forming factors
Scientists have conducted many archaeological studies and came to the conclusion that the climate of the planet has changed dramatically more than once. Many hypotheses have been put forward in this regard. According to one of the opinions, if the distance between the Earth and the Sun remains the same, as well as the speed of rotation of the planet and the angle of the axis, then the climate will remain stable.
External drivers of climate change:
- The change in the solar radiation leads to the transformation of solar radiation fluxes.
- Movements of tectonic plates affect land orography as well as ocean levels and circulation.
- The gas composition of the atmosphere, in particular the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide.
- Change in the tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation.
- Changes in the parameters of the planet's orbit with respect to the Sun.
- Terrestrial and space catastrophes.
Human activity and its impact on climate
The causes of climate change are connected, among other things, with the fact that humanity has intervened in nature throughout its existence. Deforestation, plowing, etc. lead to transformations in the humidity and wind regimes.
When people make changes to surrounding nature By draining swamps, creating artificial reservoirs, cutting down forests or planting new ones, building cities, etc., the microclimate changes. The forest strongly influences the wind regime, which determines how the snow cover will fall, how much the soil will freeze.
Green spaces in cities reduce the impact of solar radiation, increase air humidity, reduce the temperature difference in the daytime and evening, and reduce air dustiness.
If people cut down forests on the hills, then in the future this leads to a washout of the soil. Also, the decrease in the number of trees reduces the global temperature. However, this means an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, which is not only not absorbed by trees, but is also additionally released during the decomposition of wood. All this compensates for the decrease in global temperature and leads to its increase.
Industry and its impact on the climate
The causes of climate change lie not only in general warming, but also in the activities of mankind. People have increased the concentration in the air of substances such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons. All this ultimately leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect, and the consequences may be irreversible.
Daily industrial enterprises release many dangerous gases into the air. Transportation is used everywhere, polluting the atmosphere with its emissions. A lot of carbon dioxide is formed when oil and coal are burned. Even agriculture causes considerable damage to the atmosphere. Approximately 14% of all emissions come from this sector. This includes plowing fields, burning waste, burning the savannah, manure, fertilizers, animal husbandry, etc. The greenhouse effect helps maintain the temperature balance on the planet, but human activity enhances this effect at times. And this can lead to disaster.
Why should we be afraid of climate change?
97% of the world's climatologists are sure that everything has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. And the main problem of climate change is anthropogenic activity. It’s impossible to say for sure how serious this situation is, but there are many reasons for concern:
UN convention
The governments of most countries on the planet are seriously afraid of what the consequences of climate change could be. Created over 20 years ago international treaty- Framework Convention on Climate Change. All possible measures to prevent global warming are considered here. Now the convention has been ratified by 186 countries, including Russia. All participants are differentiated into 3 groups: industrially with economic development and developing countries.
The UN Convention on Climate Change is fighting to reduce the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and further stabilize indicators. This can be achieved either by increasing the sink of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or by reducing their emissions. The first option requires a large number of young forests that will absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the second option will be achieved if the consumption of fossil fuels is reduced. All ratified countries agree that the world is undergoing global climate change. The UN is ready to do everything possible to mitigate the consequences of the impending strike.
Many countries participating in the convention have come to the conclusion that joint projects and programs will be the most effective. Currently, there are more than 150 such projects. Officially, there are 9 such programs in Russia, and more than 40 unofficially.
At the end of 1997, the Climate Change Convention signed the Kyoto Protocol, which stipulated that countries with economies in transition undertake obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The protocol has been ratified by 35 countries.
Our country also took part in the implementation of this protocol. Climate change in Russia has doubled the number of natural disasters. Even if we take into account that boreal forests are located on the territory of the state, they cannot cope with all greenhouse gas emissions. It is necessary to improve and increase forest ecosystems, to carry out large-scale measures to reduce emissions from industrial enterprises.
Predictions of the effects of global warming
The essence of climate change in the last century is global warming. According to the worst forecasts, further irrational activities of mankind can increase the temperature of the Earth by 11 degrees. Climate change will be irreversible. The rotation of the planet will slow down, many species of animals and plants will die. The level of the World Ocean will rise so much that many islands and most of the coastal areas will be flooded. The Gulf Stream will change its course, leading to a new Little Ice Age in Europe. There will be widespread cataclysms, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, tsunamis, etc. The melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin.
For humanity, the consequences will be catastrophic. In addition to the need to survive in conditions of strong natural anomalies, people will have many other problems. In particular, the number of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, psychological disorders will increase, outbreaks of epidemics will begin. There will be an acute shortage of food and drinking water.
What to do?
To avoid the effects of climate change, the first step is to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humanity should switch to new energy sources, which should be low-carbohydrate and renewable. Sooner or later, this issue will be acute for the world community, since the resource currently used - mineral fuel - is non-renewable. Someday scientists will have to create new, more efficient technologies.
It is also necessary to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and only the restoration of forest areas can help with this.
It is required to apply maximum efforts to stabilize the global temperature on Earth. But even if this fails, humanity must try to achieve minimal effects of global warming.
The sun. Due to uneven heating earth's surface winds and ocean currents. Increased solar activity is accompanied by magnetic storms and a marked rise in global air temperature. The climate also depends on changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field. The seismic activity of the planet increases, volcanic activity is activated, the outlines of the continents and oceans are changing. All of the above are natural causes of climate change. Until some time, only these factors were decisive. This also includes long-term cycles such as ice ages. Focusing on solar and volcanic activity, given that the first leads to a rise in temperature and the second to a decrease, one can find an explanation for half of the temperature shifts before 1950. But over the past two centuries, another factor has been added to the natural causes of the ongoing changes. It is anthropogenic, i.e. resulting from human activity. Its main impact is a progressive greenhouse effect. Its influence is estimated to be 8 times stronger than the influence of fluctuations solar activity. This is what scientists, the public and heads of state are so concerned about. The greenhouse effect is easy to observe in greenhouses or greenhouses. The inside of these rooms is much warmer and more humid than the outside. The same thing happens on a global scale. Solar energy passes through the atmosphere and heats the Earth's surface. But the thermal energy that the planet radiates cannot penetrate into it in a timely manner, because. the atmosphere traps it, like polyethylene in a greenhouse. This is where the greenhouse effect comes in. The reason for this phenomenon is the presence of gases in the atmosphere of the planet, which are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse". Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere since its formation. They amounted to only about 0.1%. This turned out to be enough for a natural greenhouse effect to occur, affecting the heat balance of the Earth and providing a level that is suitable. If not for him, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30°C lower, i.e. not + 14 ° C, as on this moment, and -17оС. The natural greenhouse effect and the water cycle in nature support life on the planet. The anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in this phenomenon and a violation of the heat balance on Earth. This has been happening for the last two hundred years of the development of civilization and is happening now. The industry it created, automobile exhausts and much more emit a huge amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, to be exact, about 22 billion tons per year. In this regard, global warming occurs, which causes a change in the average annual air temperature. Over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the Earth has risen by 1°C. It doesn't seem like much. But this degree turned out to be quite sufficient for melting polar ice and a tangible rise in the level of the world's oceans, which naturally leads to certain consequences. There are processes that can be easily started, but subsequently difficult to stop. For example, the result of the melting of the subarctic permafrost was the release of a huge amount of methane into the atmosphere of the planet. The greenhouse effect is intensifying. And the fresh water of melting ice is changing the warm current of the Gulf Stream, which in turn will change the climate of Europe. It is clear that all these processes cannot be local. This will affect all of humanity. The moment has come to understand that the planet is a living being. It breathes and develops, radiates and interacts with other elements of the Universe. It is impossible to deplete its bowels and pollute the ocean, it is impossible for the sake of dubious pleasure to cut down virgin forests and divide the indivisible!
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences B. LUCHKOV, professor at MEPhI.
The sun is an ordinary star, not distinguished by its properties and position from the myriad of stars of the Milky Way. in terms of luminosity, size, mass, it is a typical middle peasant. It occupies the same middle place in the Galaxy: not close to the center, not on the edge, but in the middle, both in the thickness of the disk and in the radius (8 kiloparsecs from the galactic core). the only difference, one might think, from most stars is that life arose on the third planet of the vast economy of the Galaxy 3 billion years ago and, having undergone a number of changes, survived, giving rise to the thinking creature homo sapiens on the evolutionary path. a person who is searching and inquisitive, having populated the whole earth, is now engaged in the study of the world around him in order to know “what”, “how” and “why”. what, for example, determines the earth's climate, how is the earth's weather formed, and why does it change so abruptly and sometimes unpredictably? These questions seem to have received well-founded answers long ago. and over the past half century, thanks to global studies of the atmosphere and the ocean, an extensive meteorological service has been created, without reports of which now neither a housewife going to the market, nor an airplane pilot, nor a climber, nor a plowman, nor a fisherman can do - absolutely no one. it’s just noticed that sometimes the forecasts go wrong, and then the housewives, pilots, climbers, not to mention the plowmen and fishermen, vilify the weather service for how much in vain. this means that everything is not yet completely clear in the weather kitchen, and one should carefully understand the complex synoptic phenomena and relationships. One of the main ones is the earth-sun connection, which gives us warmth and light, but from which hurricanes, droughts, floods and other extreme “weathers” sometimes break free, like from a pandora's box. what gives rise to these “dark forces” of the earth's climate, which is generally quite pleasant compared to what is happening on other planets?
The coming years lurk in the mist.
A. Pushkin
CLIMATE AND WEATHER
Earth's climate is determined by two main factors: the solar constant and the inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation to the plane of the orbit. Solar constant - the flux of solar radiation coming to Earth, 1.4 . 10 3 W/m 2 is indeed unchanged with high accuracy (up to 0.1%) both in short (seasons, years) and long (centuries, millions of years) scales. The reason for this is the constancy of the solar luminosity L = 4 . 10 26 W, determined by the thermonuclear “burning” of hydrogen in the center of the Sun, and the almost circular orbit of the Earth (R= 1,5 . 10 11 m). The “middle” position of the luminary makes its character surprisingly tolerable - no changes in luminosity and solar radiation flux, no changes in temperature of the photosphere. Calm, balanced star. And the climate of the Earth is therefore strictly defined - hot in the equatorial zone, where the sun is at its zenith almost every day, moderately warm in the middle latitudes and cold near the poles, where it barely protrudes from the horizon.
Another thing is the weather. In each latitudinal zone, it manifests itself as a certain deviation from the established climatic standard. There is also a thaw in winter and buds swell on the trees. It happens that at the height of summer bad weather will come with a piercing autumn wind, and sometimes snowfall. Weather is a specific realization of the climate of a given latitude with possible (recently very frequent) deviations-anomalies.
MODEL PREDICTIONS
Weather anomalies are very harmful, they cause great damage. Floods, droughts, severe winters destroyed agriculture, led to famine and epidemics. Storms, hurricanes, heavy rains also did not spare anything in their path, forcing people to leave the devastated places. The victims of weather anomalies are innumerable. It is impossible to subdue the weather, to mitigate its extreme manifestations. The energy of weather disruptions is not subject even now, in an energetically developed time, when gas, oil, uranium gave us great power over nature. The energy of an average hurricane (10 17 J) is equal to the total output of all power plants in the world in three hours. Unsuccessful attempts to stop the impending bad weather were made in the last century. In the 1980s, a frontal attack on hurricanes was carried out by the US Air Force (Operation Storm Fury), but they showed only their complete impotence (Science and Life, No. ).
Yet science and technology have been able to help. If it is impossible to contain the blows of the enraged elements, then perhaps it will be possible at least to foresee them in order to take timely measures. Weather development models began to develop, especially successfully with the introduction of modern computers. The most powerful computers, the most complex calculation programs now belong to weather forecasters and the military. The results were not long in coming.
By the end of the last century, calculations based on synoptic models had reached such a level of perfection that they began to describe well the processes occurring in the ocean (the main factor in terrestrial weather), on land, in the atmosphere, including its lower layer, the troposphere, the weather factory. A very good agreement was reached between the calculation of the main weather factors (air temperature, the content of CO 2 and other "greenhouse" gases, heating of the surface layer of the ocean) with real measurements. Above are plots of calculated and measured temperature anomalies over a century and a half.
Such models can be trusted - they have become a working tool for weather forecasting. Weather anomalies (their strength, place, moment of occurrence), it turns out, can be predicted. This means that there is time and opportunity to prepare for the strikes of the elements. Forecasts have become commonplace, and the damage caused by weather anomalies has been drastically reduced.
A special place was occupied by long-term forecasts, for tens and hundreds of years, as a guide to action for economists, politicians, heads of production - “captains” modern world. Several long-term forecasts for the 21st century are now known.
WHAT IS THE COMING CENTURY PREPARING FOR US?
The forecast for such a long period, of course, can only be approximate. Weather parameters are presented with significant tolerances (error intervals, as is customary in mathematical statistics). To take into account all the possibilities of the future, a number of development scenarios are being played out. The Earth's climate system is too unstable, even the best models, tested on tests of past years, can make miscalculations when referring to the distant future.
The calculation algorithms are based on two opposite assumptions: 1) a gradual change in weather factors (optimistic option), 2) their sharp jump, leading to noticeable climate changes (pessimistic option).
The Gradual Climate Change Forecast of the 21st Century (“Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change Working Group Report”, Shanghai, January 2001) presents the results of seven model scenarios. The main conclusion is that the warming of the Earth, which has covered the entire last century, will continue further, accompanied by an increase in the emission of "greenhouse gases" (mainly CO 2 and SO 2), an increase in surface air temperature (by 2-6 ° C by the end of the new century) and sea level rise (on average 0.5 m per century). Some scenarios give a decline in emissions of "greenhouse gases" in the second half of the century as a result of the ban on industrial emissions into the atmosphere, their concentration will not differ much from the current level. The most likely changes in weather factors are higher maximum temperatures and more hot days, less low minimum temperatures and fewer frosty days in almost all regions of the earth, reduced temperature dispersion, more intense precipitation. Possible climate changes are more summer dry spells with a noticeable risk of droughts, stronger winds and greater intensity of tropical cyclones.
The past five years filled with severe anomalies (dreaded North Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons keeping up with them, the harsh winter of 2006 in the Northern Hemisphere and other weather surprises) show that the new century does not seem to have taken an optimistic path. Of course, the century has just begun, deviations from the predicted gradual development can be smoothed out, but its “stormy start” gives reason to doubt the first option.
THE 21st CENTURY SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE (P. SCHWARTZ, D. RANDELL, OCTOBER 2003)
This is not just a forecast, this is a shake-up - an alarm signal for the “captains” of the world, reassured by the gradual climate change: it can always be corrected with small means (conversation protocols) in the right direction, and you can not be afraid that the situation will get out of control. The new forecast proceeds from the outlined tendency of growth of extreme natural anomalies. They think it's starting to come true. The world has gone down a pessimistic path.
The first decade (2000-2010) is a continuation of gradual warming, which does not yet cause much concern, but still with a noticeable acceleration rate. North America, Europe, partly South Africa will have 30% more warm and less frosty days, the number and intensity of weather anomalies (floods, droughts, hurricanes) affecting agriculture will increase. Nevertheless, such weather cannot be considered particularly severe, threatening the world order.
But by 2010, such a number of dangerous changes will have accumulated that will lead to a sharp jump in climate in a completely unforeseen (according to the gradual version) direction. The hydrological cycle (evaporation, precipitation, water leakage) will accelerate, which will further increase average temperature air. Water vapor is a powerful natural "greenhouse gas". Due to the increase in the average surface temperature, forests and pastures will dry up, mass Forest fires(You can already see how difficult it is to deal with them). The concentration of CO 2 will increase so much that the usual absorption by ocean water and land plants, which determined the rate of "gradual change", will no longer work. The greenhouse effect will pick up. Abundant snowmelt will begin in the mountains, in the polar tundra, the area of polar ice will sharply decrease, which will greatly reduce the solar albedo. Air and land temperatures are rising catastrophically. Strong winds due to the large temperature gradient, they cause sandstorms, leading to soil weathering. There is no control over the elements and the possibility of at least a little tweaking it. Pace abrupt change climate is gaining momentum. The trouble covers all regions of the world.
At the beginning of the second decade, there will be a slowdown in the thermocline circulation in the ocean, and he is the main creator of the weather. Due to the abundance of rain and the melting of the polar ice, the oceans will become fresher. The usual transfer of warm water from the equator to the middle latitudes will be suspended.
The Gulf Stream, the warm Atlantic current along North America towards Europe, the guarantor of the temperate climate of the Northern Hemisphere, will freeze. Warming in this region will be replaced by a sharp cooling and a decrease in precipitation. In just a few years, the vector of weather change will turn 180 degrees, the climate will become cold and dry.
At this point, computer models do not give a clear answer: what will actually happen? Will the climate of the Northern Hemisphere become colder and drier, which will not yet lead to a global catastrophe, or will a new one come? glacial period lasting hundreds of years, as happened on Earth more than once and not so long ago (Little Ice Age, Event-8200, Early Trias - 12,700 years ago).
The worst case that can really happen is this. Devastating droughts in food-producing regions and high density population (North America, Europe, China). Reduced precipitation, drying up of rivers, depletion of fresh water. Reduction of food supplies, mass starvation, the spread of epidemics, the flight of the population from disaster areas. Growing international tension, wars for food sources, drinking and energy resources. At the same time, in regions with a traditionally dry climate (Asia, South America, Australia) - heavy rains, floods, the death of agricultural land, not adapted to such an abundance of moisture. And here, too, the reduction of agriculture, the lack of food. The collapse of the modern world order. Sharp, by the billions, population decline. The rejection of civilization for centuries, the arrival of cruel rulers, religious wars, the collapse of science, culture, morality. Armageddon as predicted!
Abrupt, unexpected climate change to which the world simply cannot adapt.
The conclusion of the scenario is disappointing: it is necessary to take urgent measures, and it is not clear which ones. Absorbed by carnivals, championships, thoughtless shows, the enlightened world, which could “undertake” something, simply does not pay attention to it: “Scientists scare, but we are not afraid!”
SOLAR ACTIVITY AND TERRESTRIAL WEATHER
There is, however, a third version of the Earth's climate forecast, which agrees with the rampant anomalies at the beginning of the century, but does not lead to a universal catastrophe. It is based on observations of our star, which, despite all the apparent calmness, still has noticeable activity.
Solar activity is a manifestation of the outer convective zone, which occupies a third of the solar radius, where, due to a large temperature gradient (from 10 6 K inside to 6 . 10 3 K on the photosphere), hot plasma breaks out in “boiling streams” that generate local magnetic fields with a strength thousands of times greater than the total field of the Sun. All observed features of activity are due to processes in the convective zone. Photosphere granulation, hot areas (torches), ascending prominences (arcs of matter raised by magnetic field lines), dark spots and groups of spots - tubes of local magnetic fields, chromospheric flares (the result of a rapid closure of opposite magnetic fluxes, which converts the supply of magnetic energy into the energy of accelerated particles and plasma heating). This tangle of phenomena on the visible disk of the Sun is woven into the radiant solar corona (the upper, very rarefied atmosphere heated to millions of degrees, the source of the solar wind). A significant role in solar activity is played by coronal condensations and holes observed in X-rays, and mass ejections from the corona (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). Numerous and varied manifestations of solar activity.
The most indicative, accepted activity index is the Wolf number W, introduced back in the 19th century, indicating the number of dark spots and their groups on the solar disk. The face of the Sun is covered with a changing freckle patch, which indicates the inconsistency of its activity. On c. 27 below shows a graph of average annual values W(t), obtained by direct monitoring of the Sun (the last century and a half) and restored from individual observations until 1600 (the luminary was then not under “ constant supervision”). Visible ups and downs in the number of spots - activity cycles. One cycle lasts an average of 11 years (more precisely, 10.8 years), but there is a noticeable scatter (from 7 to 17 years), the variability is not strictly periodic. Harmonic analysis also reveals a second variability - secular, the period of which, also not strictly consistent, is ~100 years. On the graph, it manifests itself clearly - with such a period, the amplitude of solar cycles Wmax changes. In the middle of each century, the amplitude reached its maximum values (Wmax ~ 150-200), at the turn of the centuries it decreased to Wmax = 50-80 (at the beginning of the 19th and 20th centuries) and even to an extremely small level ( early 18th century). During a long time interval, called the Maunder minimum (1640-1720), no cyclicity was observed and the number of sunspots on the disk was calculated in units. The Maunder phenomenon, which is also observed in other stars close in luminosity and spectral type to the Sun, is a not entirely understood mechanism for the rearrangement of the convective zone of a star, as a result of which the generation of magnetic fields slows down. Deeper “excavations” have shown that similar restructurings on the Sun have happened before: the minimums of Sperer (1420-1530) and Wolf (1280-1340). As you can see, they happen on average after 200 years and last 60-120 years - at this time, the Sun seems to fall into a lethargic sleep, resting from active work. Almost 300 years have passed since the Maunder Minimum. It's time for the luminary to rest again.
Here there is a direct connection with the topic of terrestrial weather and climate change. The chronicle of the times of the Maunder minimum definitely points to anomalous weather behavior similar to what is happening today. Throughout Europe (less likely throughout the Northern Hemisphere), surprisingly cold winters were observed at this time. The canals froze, as evidenced by the paintings of the Dutch masters, the Thames froze, and it became a custom for Londoners to arrange festivities on the ice of the river. Even the North Sea, warmed by the Gulf Stream, was ice-bound, as a result of which navigation was stopped. In these years, almost no auroras were observed, which indicates a decrease in the intensity of the solar wind. The breathing of the Sun, as happens during sleep, weakened, and this is what led to climate change. The weather became cold, windy, capricious.
SOLAR BREATHING
How, by means of what is the solar activity transmitted to the Earth? There must be some material carriers that carry out the transfer. There can be several such “carriers”: the hard part of the solar radiation spectrum (ultraviolet, X-ray), solar wind, material emissions during solar flares, CMEs. The results of observations of the Sun in the 23rd cycle (1996-2006) carried out by spacecraft SOHO, TRACE (USA, Europe), CORONAS-F (Russia) showed that CMEs are the main “carriers” of solar influence. They primarily determine the earth's weather, and all the other "carriers" complete the picture (see "Science and Life" No. ).
CMEs have been studied in detail only recently, having realized their leading role in solar-terrestrial relations, although they have been noticed since the 1970s. In terms of emission frequency, mass and energy, they surpass all other “carriers”. With a mass of 1-10 billion tons and speed (1-3 . 10 km/s, these plasma clouds have a kinetic energy of ~10 25 J. Reaching the Earth for several days, they have a strong impact first on the Earth's magnetosphere, and through it on the upper layers of the atmosphere. The mechanism of action is now well understood. The Soviet geophysicist A.L. Chizhevsky guessed about it 50 years ago, in general terms it was understood by E.R. Mustel and his colleagues (1980s). Finally, today it has been proven by observations from American and European satellites. The SOHO orbital station, which has been conducting continuous observations for 10 years, has registered about 1500 CMEs. The SAMPEX and POLAR satellites noted the appearance of emissions near the Earth and traced the impact.
In general terms, the impact of CMEs on the Earth's weather is now well known. Having reached the vicinity of the planet, the expanded magnetic cloud flows around the Earth's magnetosphere along the boundary (magnetopause), since the magnetic field does not let charged plasma particles inside. The impact of the cloud on the magnetosphere generates fluctuations in the magnetic field, which manifests itself as a magnetic storm. The magnetosphere is squeezed by the flowing solar plasma flow, the concentration of field lines increases, and at some point in the development of the storm, they reconnect (similar to what generates flares on the Sun, but on a much smaller spatial and energy scale). The released magnetic energy is used to accelerate the particles of the radiation belt (electrons, positrons, protons of relatively low energies), which, having acquired energy of tens and hundreds of MeV, can no longer be held by the Earth's magnetic field. A stream of accelerated particles spills out into the atmosphere along the geomagnetic equator. Interacting with the atoms of the atmosphere, charged particles transfer their energy to them. A new “energy source” appears, affecting the upper layer of the atmosphere, and through its instability to vertical displacements, the lower layers, including the troposphere. This “source”, associated with solar activity, “shatters” the weather, creating cloud accumulations, giving rise to cyclones and storms. The main result of his intervention is the destabilization of the weather: calm is replaced by a storm, dry land by heavy rainfall, rains by drought. It is noteworthy that all weather changes begin near the equator: tropical cyclones developing into hurricanes, variable monsoons, mysterious El Niño("Child") - the world's weather troublemaker, unexpectedly appearing in the east Pacific Ocean and just as suddenly disappearing.
According to the “solar scenario” of weather anomalies, the forecast for the 21st century is calmer. The Earth's climate will change slightly, but the weather regime will undergo a noticeable shift, as it always did when solar activity faded. It may not be very strong (colder than usual, winter and more rainy summer months) if solar activity drops to Wmax ~ 50, as was the case at the beginning of the 19th and 20th centuries. It can become more serious (cooling of the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere) if a new Maunder minimum occurs (Wmax< 10). В любом случае похолодание климата будет не кратковременным, а продолжится, вместе с аномалиями погоды, несколько десятилетий.
What awaits us in the near future will be shown by the 24th cycle, which is now beginning. With a high probability, based on the analysis of solar activity over 400 years, its amplitude Wmax will become even smaller, solar respiration even weaker. We need to keep an eye on coronal mass ejections. Their number, pace, sequence will determine the weather at the beginning of the 21st century. And, of course, it is absolutely necessary to understand what happens to your favorite star when her activity stops. This task is not only scientific - in solar physics, astrophysics, geophysics. Its solution is fundamentally necessary to clarify the conditions for the preservation of life on Earth.
Literature
Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I of IPCC (Shanghai, January 2001), Internet.
Schwartz R., Randall D . An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario (October 2003), Internet.
Budyko M. Climate. What will he be like? // Science and Life, 1979, No. 4.
Luchkov B. Solar influence on terrestrial weather. Scientific session MiFi-2006 // Collection of scientific papers, vol. 7, p.79.
Moiseev N. The future of the planet and system analysis // Science and Life, 1974, No. 4.
Nikolaev G. Climate at a turning point // Science and Life, 1995, No. 6.
Global warming and other irreversible changes in the environment are of concern to many scientists.
What threatens Russia with climate change? Bias climatic zones, insect invasions, destructive natural disasters and crop failures - in the selection of RIA Novosti.
Climate change has led to the invasion of ticks in Russia
Climate change has led to a strong increase in the number and rapid spread of ticks in central Russia, in the North, in Siberia and the Far East, according to the World Fund wildlife(WWF) Russia.
"More frequent than before, warm winters and springs lead to the fact that a greater percentage of ticks successfully overwinter, their numbers are growing, and they are spreading over an ever larger area. Climate change forecasts for the coming decades clearly show that trends will not change, which means that the ticks themselves will not crawl away and die, and the problem will only get worse," says Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, quoted by the foundation.
According to WWF, in regions where ticks have always been, there are more of them. This is Perm region, Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov and other regions, Siberia and the Far East. But it's worse that ticks have appeared where they are "not known". They spread to the north of the Arkhangelsk region, and the west, and even the south of Russia. If earlier only the two northernmost districts of the Moscow region, Taldomsky and Dmitrovsky, were considered dangerous for tick-borne encephalitis, now ticks have been seen in the middle part of the region and even in the south, WWF notes.
"The most dangerous months when ticks are most active are May and June, although outbreaks of activity occur at the end of summer. The most dangerous places are small forests of deciduous trees - young birch and aspen forests, edges and forest areas with tall grass. Conifers are much less dangerous forests, especially if there is little grass in them," the foundation emphasizes.
As ecologists add, the "infection" of the ticks themselves, which carry very serious diseases: encephalitis, Lyme disease (borreliosis), has not changed. As before, carriers of the most dangerous disease - encephalitis - are only 1-2 ticks out of a thousand. Other diseases - a few dozen out of a thousand. But the ticks themselves became larger and, most importantly, they appeared in new places.
The positive effect of climate change for the Russian Federation will be short-lived
The positive effects of climate change on Russian agriculture, which the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Nikolai Fedorov said earlier in an interview, are likely to be short-lived and may come to naught by 2020, the coordinator of the climate and energy program of the World Wildlife Fund told RIA Novosti (WWF) Russia Alexey Kokorin.
Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said in an interview on Wednesday that climate change and, in particular, warming will be in the interests of the country, since the permafrost area, which today accounts for about 60% of the territory of the Russian Federation, will shrink, and the area of land suitable for farming agriculture, on the contrary, to increase.
According to Kokorin, the Institute of Agricultural Meteorology of Roshydromet in Obninsk has analyzed in sufficient detail possible climate change scenarios and their impact on the conditions for farming in the country for all macroregions of Russia.
“It turns out that, indeed, for some time there may be a so-called positive impact on conditional climatic productivity. But then, in some cases from 2020, in some cases from 2030, depending on the scenario, it still goes down.” - said Kokorin.
"That is, of course, some catastrophic things that are predicted, say, for Uzbekistan or for certain African countries, are not expected. Moreover, a small positive and short-term effect is expected - but here you should always make a reservation, firstly what period of time are we talking about, and secondly, that it will still go, unfortunately, a minus," the expert added.
Kokorin recalled that one of the consequences of climate change will be an increase in the scale and frequency of dangerous weather events, which can cause very significant damage to farmers in a particular region. This means that it is necessary to improve the insurance system in agriculture, which, according to Kokorin, "on the one hand, is already working, on the other, it is still working with failures." In particular, it is necessary to establish interaction between agricultural producers, insurance companies and regional divisions of Roshydromet.
The temperature in winter in the Russian Federation by the middle of the century can rise by 2-5 degrees
The temperature in winter throughout Russia by the middle of the 21st century may increase by two to five degrees Celsius due to global climate change, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.
"The greatest warming will affect winter ... in the middle of the 21st century, an increase of 2-5 degrees is predicted throughout the country," the Antistichia Center's forecast for 2013 says. According to its experts, in most of the European territory of Russia and western Siberia, the increase in winter temperatures in the period up to 2015 may be one to two degrees.
"The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will amount to 1-3 degrees by the middle of the century," the document says.
As previously reported, the rate of warming in Russia over 100 years is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, and over the past decade, the rate of warming in the country has increased several times compared to the 20th century.
The climate in Russia has been warming almost twice as fast as in the whole world for a century.
The rate of warming on the territory of Russia over 100 years due to global climate change is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.
"Over the past 100 years, the average temperature rise in Russia has been one and a half to two times higher than global warming in the whole Earth," the Antistichia Center's forecast for 2013 says.
The document notes that in the 21st century, the bulk of Russia's territory "will be in an area of more significant warming compared to global warming." "At the same time, warming will significantly depend on the time of year and the region, especially Siberia and the subarctic regions," the forecast says.
AT last years number of dangerous natural phenomena and major man-made disasters is steadily increasing. Emergency risks arising in the process of global climate change and economic activity pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities of the country.
According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, in areas of possible impact of damaging factors in case of accidents at critically important and potentially dangerous objects Over 90 million Russians live, or 60% of the country's population. Annual economic damage (direct and indirect) from emergencies of various nature can reach 1.5-2% of the gross domestic product- from 675 to 900 billion rubles.
Climate warming leads to more snow in Siberia
Global climate change is leading to the growth of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia, Vladimir Kotlyakov, director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Thursday, speaking at the World Snow Forum.
"A paradox arises - with warming, which is now typical, there is more snow on the Earth. This happens in large expanses of Siberia, where there is more snow than it was one or two decades ago," said Kotlyakov, honorary president of the Russian Geographical Society.
According to the geographer, scientists have been observing the trend of growing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s, when satellite observations of the spread of snow cover began.
“Now is the era of global warming, and as the air temperature increases, the moisture content of air masses also increases, therefore, in cold areas, the amount of snowfall increases. This indicates a great sensitivity of the snow cover to any changes in the composition of the atmosphere and its circulation, and this must be remembered when assessment of any anthropogenic impacts on environment", explained the scientist.
In general, there is much more snow in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, where the ocean prevents its distribution. So, in February, 19% of the globe is covered with snow, while 31% of the area of the Northern Hemisphere and 7.5% of the area of the Southern Hemisphere.
"In August, snow covers only 9% of the entire globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, the snow cover changes more than seven times during the year, and in the Southern - less than twice," Kotlyakov added.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in December 2012, the total snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the largest in more than 130 years of observations - it exceeded the average by almost 3 million square kilometers and 200 thousand square kilometers surpassed the 1985 record. On average, according to American meteorologists, the area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter has grown at a rate of about 0.1% per decade.
European Russia will not receive bonuses from warming, the scientist said
Calculations of global warming processes in the 21st century on the East European Plain and in Western Siberia indicate that climate change will not have any positive environmental and economic consequences for these regions, said Alexander Kislov, head of the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, speaking at international conference"Problems of adaptation to climate change".
Kislov, Dean of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University Nikolai Kasimov and their colleagues analyzed the geographic, environmental and economic consequences of global warming in the East European Plain and Western Siberia in the 21st century using the CMIP3 model.
In particular, changes in river flow, the state of permafrost, the distribution of vegetation cover, and the characteristics of the incidence of malaria in the population were considered. In addition, it was studied how the volumes of hydropower and agro-climatic resources react to climatic processes, how the duration of the heating period changes.
"Climate change almost nowhere leads to positive results in terms of ecology and economy (except for lower heating costs), at least in the short term. Significant deterioration of hydrological resources is expected in the southern part of the East European Plain," the scientists conclude.
At the same time, the consequences of climate change are much more pronounced in the East European Plain than in Western Siberia.
"The response of individual regions to global changes is very different ... each region is dominated by its own natural and ecological process caused by climate change, for example, the thawing of permafrost or desertification processes," Kislov concluded.
The international conference "Problems of adaptation to climate change" (PAIK-2011) is held on behalf of the government of the Russian Federation by Roshydromet with the participation of other departments, the Russian Academy of Sciences, business and public organizations supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNESCO, the World Bank and other international institutions.
The meeting, the organizing committee of which is headed by the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov, is attended by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wahlstrem, WMO Secretary General Mishesh Jarraud, representatives of the World Bank, UNEP, Russian and foreign climatologists and meteorologists , politicians, officials, economists and businessmen.
The duration of the fire hazard period in the Russian Federation will increase by 40% by 2015
The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in the duration of the fire hazard period in central Russia by 40%, that is, by almost two months, until 2015 due to global climate change.
"The duration of the fire season in the middle latitude zone of Russia may increase by 50-60 days, that is, by 30-40%, in comparison with the existing average long-term values," Vladislav Bolov, head of the Antistihiia Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told RIA Novosti on Friday.
According to him, this will significantly increase the threats and risks of large-scale emergencies associated with wildfires.
"The duration of the fire hazard situation will increase most significantly in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, in the Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai territories, as well as in Yakutia," Bolov said.
At the same time, he noted that "compared to the current values, an increase in the number of days with a fire hazard situation up to five days per season is predicted for most of the country's territory."
Last summer and part of autumn, large-scale natural fires blazed across a significant part of the country, caused by abnormal heat. In 19 subjects of the federation, 199 were affected settlements, 3.2 thousand houses burned down, 62 people died. The total damage amounted to over 12 billion rubles. This year, the fire also engulfed large areas, primarily Far East and Siberia.
Forest-steppe may come to Moscow by the end of the century due to climate change
Moscow and the Moscow region 50-100 years after the end of the current "transitional" period of warming in terms of climatic conditions will be similar to the forest-steppes of the Kursk and Oryol regions with dry summers and warm winters, says Pavel Toropov, senior researcher at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University.
"After the end of the transitional climate process that is currently taking place, the climate will return to its new warmer state, in 50-100 years natural areas may change. Judging by existing forecasts, climatic conditions will be closer to landscapes and natural conditions forest-steppes, which are currently observed in the Kursk and Oryol regions," Toropov said at a press conference in RIA Novosti.
According to him, Moscow and the region will not be left without snow as a result of climate warming, but hot dry summers and warmer, milder winters will be observed.
"The climate of the region will change significantly, apparently, but in the next 50 years we will not remain without snow and will not start growing apricots and peaches," Toropov added.
Russia may lose up to 20% of grain annually due to climate change
Russia may lose up to 20% of its grain harvest annually in the next five to ten years due to global climate change on the planet and the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus, according to an assessment report on the consequences of climate change for the Union State, published on the Roshydromet website. .
The report "On strategic assessments of the consequences of climate change in the next 10-20 years for the natural environment and economy of the Union State" was considered at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on October 28, 2009.
According to Rosstat, as of December 1, 2009, grain harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 102.7 million tons in bunker weight. This corresponds to 95.7 million tonnes in post-refinery weight, with an average value of unused grain waste of 6.8% in 2004-2008.
The report says that the most important negative feature of the expected climate change is the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State that accompanies the warming process.
"The expected increase in aridity of the climate may lead to a decrease in yields in the main grain-producing regions of Russia (potential annual losses in the volume of grain harvest, while maintaining the existing system of land cultivation and the applied breeding species, can reach up to 15-20% in the next five to ten years gross grain harvest), but will not, apparently, have a significant negative impact on agriculture in a sufficiently moistened Non-Chernozem zone," the report says.
According to the report, in Belarus and a number of regions of the European territory of the Russian Federation, the conditions for the growth and formation of the crop of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, vegetables (cabbage), and the second mowing of grasses will worsen.
In order to use additional heat resources, the document proposes to increase the share of more heat-loving and drought-resistant crops, expand stubble (crop) crops and irrigation work, and introduce drip irrigation systems.
The border of permafrost in the Arctic has retreated up to 80 km due to warming
The border of permafrost in the Arctic regions of Russia over the past decades has receded due to global warming to 80 kilometers, which has intensified the processes of soil degradation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation reports on Tuesday.
The total area of permafrost regions in Russia is about 10.7 million square kilometers or about 63% of the country's territory. More than 70% of explored oil reserves are concentrated here, about 93% natural gas, significant deposits hard coal, an extensive infrastructure of fuel and energy complex facilities has also been created.
"The southern border of the VM over the past few decades has shifted to a distance of 40 to 80 kilometers ... Degradation processes (of the soil) have intensified - seasonal thawing areas (taliks) and thermokarst phenomena have appeared," the forecast of the emergency situation on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2012 says. prepared by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.
The agency also records changes in the temperature regimes of the upper layer of permafrost over the past 40 years.
"Observational data demonstrate an almost universal increase, since 1970, in the average annual temperature of the upper layer of the VM. In the north of the European territory of Russia, it amounted to 1.2-2.4 degrees, in the north of Western Siberia - 1, Eastern Siberia - 1.3, Central Yakutia - 1.5 degrees," the document says.
At the same time, the Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the impact of permafrost degradation on the stability of various structures, primarily residential buildings, industrial facilities and pipelines, as well as roads and railways, runways and power lines.
"This was one of the main prerequisites for the fact that the number of accidents and various damages to the above objects has significantly increased in the territory of the VM in recent years," the forecast says.
According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, about 250 structures in the Norilsk industrial complex alone have received significant deformations, almost 40 residential buildings have been demolished or are scheduled for demolition.
